Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.645130 5.438203 6.314300 7.352297 8.546898 9.876962 11.468374
2025-09-21 3.391601 4.451186 5.747507 7.442652 9.592616 12.219577 15.662776
2025-09-28 2.594858 3.750595 5.290766 7.475925 10.475758 14.425584 19.991639
2025-10-05 2.258968 3.539151 5.370444 8.148303 12.214558 17.899075 26.383930
2025-10-12 1.908880 3.215542 5.206898 8.411769 13.374609 20.683181 32.146692
2025-10-19 1.644406 2.957708 5.076381 8.670898 14.520858 23.538024 38.305455
2025-10-26 1.396300 2.671164 4.840226 8.704922 15.289258 25.870722 43.893445
2025-11-02 1.151895 2.339426 4.466324 8.437889 15.505411 27.319881 48.198183
2025-11-09 0.936686 2.016604 4.049490 8.020956 15.388857 28.175517 51.573169
2025-11-16 0.796962 1.811246 3.810399 7.881269 15.725795 29.809587 56.403468
2025-11-23 0.688696 1.648190 3.623723 7.807016 16.160447 31.640460 61.736585
2025-11-30 0.636727 1.595575 3.647655 8.145543 17.412048 35.065169 70.267910
2025-12-07 0.563272 1.483253 3.535572 8.202609 18.141534 37.636338 77.563127
2025-12-14 0.497329 1.375821 3.417770 8.232557 18.824319 40.199022 85.125069
2025-12-21 0.439362 1.275900 3.300132 8.244583 19.468955 42.750153 92.916630
2025-12-28 0.431813 1.304637 3.486835 8.971430 21.741034 48.816036 108.329221
2026-01-04 0.398926 1.258439 3.484946 9.256146 23.063857 53.037976 120.338697
2026-01-11 0.369253 1.214955 3.482516 9.538109 24.411134 57.436137 133.109565
2026-01-18 0.331656 1.140199 3.387017 9.574856 25.187795 60.667585 143.670182
2026-01-25 0.285578 1.029063 3.175397 9.282961 25.138550 62.058544 150.331460
2026-02-01 0.240178 0.908875 2.917054 8.827274 24.625238 62.337951 154.526727
2026-02-08 0.211050 0.835237 2.778391 8.674570 24.855834 64.357236 162.854915
2026-02-15 0.187712 0.775810 2.671184 8.593393 25.260466 66.823370 172.433224